AGP Executive Report

Voting Rights: The Trump administration sued California to block the state from counting ballots from about 20,000 voters it alleges may be noncitizens. California officials call the case an attempt to suppress votes and say they will fight it. Midterm Mood: A new AP-NORC poll finds about eight in 10 voters want substantial change or a complete overhaul of how the country is run, with the economy and cost of living top concerns. Senate Races: Texas Democrat James Talarico is drawing increased attention as he challenges Republican Ken Paxton, while Ohio’s Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted are locked in a close contest. Kansas is also emerging as a competitive race, with Democrat Adam Hamilton challenging Republican Roger Marshall. Election Security: The FBI and U.S. Postal Inspection Service are investigating suspicious letters sent to congressional and election offices; some reportedly contained an unknown substance. Legal Scrutiny: Two women have sued former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, accusing him of involvement in a sex-trafficking scheme. Gaetz denies the allegations.

Midterm Pressure: September inflation rose to 3.7%, with gasoline and diesel costs surging as the Iran war disrupts energy markets. Democrats are tying the conflict and household expenses to Republican candidates, while Trump is campaigning in Arizona and Montana to shore up GOP races. Campaigns: Barack Obama endorsed Roy Cooper in North Carolina’s Senate contest, and candidates in several close races debated fuel costs, healthcare and the Iran war. Investigations and Elections: Federal authorities seized Rep. Ilhan Omar’s phone and subpoenaed relatives as they investigate her immigration paperwork and finances; Democrats and Republicans are also preparing election observers for closely contested races. The FBI is investigating a suspicious powder-filled letter sent to Ohio’s secretary of state. Court Fight: A federal judge extended an order blocking the White House from barring CNN, MS NOW and Politico, ruling that the outlets must retain access while their case proceeds. Fuel Relief: The IRS says it will waive penalties on dyed diesel used on highways through Dec. 31, following Trump’s executive order.

Election Oversight: The Trump administration declined to invite OSCE observers to monitor the midterms, breaking with more than two decades of practice and drawing criticism from Democrats. A federal judge has also ruled illegal the administration’s effort to collect millions of voters’ personal data. Ballot Access: The Justice Department gave California 48 hours to remove voters it suspects are noncitizens and withhold their mail ballots, threatening a lawsuit as voting gets underway. Congress and DOJ: Federal agents seized Rep. Ilhan Omar’s phone and issued about a dozen subpoenas, including to relatives, in an immigration-related investigation—raising scrutiny over the probe’s timing and protections for lawmakers. Midterm Campaigns: House candidates Julie Fedorchak and Trygve Hammer clashed over the economy in a North Dakota debate. Kamala Harris plans to campaign in Wisconsin for gubernatorial hopeful David Crowley, while Gavin Newsom heads to New Hampshire to stump for Democrats. Cost of Living: Social Security benefits will rise 3.6% next year as inflation reached 3.7% over the past year.

White House Press Access: A federal judge extended an order blocking Trump from barring CNN, MS NOW and Politico reporters, finding they are likely to prevail on First Amendment and due-process claims. Russia Policy: Twelve senators, including six Republicans, urged Trump to scrap his Russian diesel deal, saying it would benefit Moscow with little relief for Americans. Midterm Campaigns: Senate candidates clashed in debates over immigration, energy and health care as Iowa early voting began. Administration Scrutiny: U.S. Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned amid misconduct allegations she denies. Democrats and civil-rights groups also criticized the search of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s home by federal agents.

Diplomatic Fallout: Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned as U.S. ambassador to Greece after the White House asked her to step down amid allegations she sought a donor’s help with a $100,000 credit-card bill. She denies wrongdoing. Federal Oversight: The Supreme Court will consider whether DOGE must turn over internal records to a watchdog group, putting government transparency and executive authority before the justices. Congressional Scrutiny: Federal agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Washington home under a court-authorized warrant as part of a criminal investigation; Democrats criticized the raid, while the Justice Department has offered limited details. Midterm Stakes: A new poll finds fewer than half of likely voters expect every ballot to be counted accurately, as control of Congress remains in play and key Senate races draw national attention. Another poll finds most Americans believe Trump has prioritized personal financial interests over the country. Campaign Flashpoints: Trump endorsed Michele Tafoya in Minnesota’s Senate race, while Nevada’s data-center fight is putting federal land use and local input on the political agenda.

Omar Investigation: Federal agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Washington-area home as part of an ongoing criminal investigation, with officials offering few details and announcing no charges. Democrats condemned the move, coming weeks before the midterms, as possible political intimidation. Russia Deal Fallout: Trump’s agreement to import Russian diesel drew bipartisan calls from senators to halt the deal, with critics questioning its legality and warning it could benefit Moscow. Midterm Money: Elon Musk has given $276 million since July to groups supporting Republican candidates, making him the cycle’s largest reported donor. Campaign Trail: At an Ohio rally for Republicans, Trump targeted Somali and Haitian immigrants as he urged voters to back GOP candidates in tight races. Voting and Press: Republican-led states are adopting new voting rules resembling Trump’s proposals, while the Justice Department says it will investigate major TV networks over a press-pool boycott of White House events.

Federal Investigation: Homeland Security agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Washington-area home as part of an investigation whose scope remains unclear. Democrats questioned the timing, weeks before her reelection bid; Omar called it political intimidation. Russia Diesel Deal: Six senators from both parties say President Trump’s plan to import Russian diesel violates a 2022 ban and bypassed Congress. The dispute is sharpening as fuel costs weigh on voters. Midterm Stakes: Iowa Democrats see a chance to break years of Republican dominance, while new voting restrictions in GOP-led states are taking effect. Kansas voters have until Tuesday to register for the November election. Healthcare Costs: New analysis finds about one in three privately insured working-age Americans are paying medical bills over time, underscoring the gap between having coverage and affording care.

Russia Diesel Deal: Trump’s decision to allow Russian diesel imports is drawing bipartisan Senate opposition, with lawmakers urging him to reverse course. Trump also announced an energy ceasefire in Ukraine, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the news came as a surprise and that Ukraine would agree if Russia does. Trump separately called for Ukraine to choose a new president. Federal Reserve: Trump has ordered a White House committee to investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook and report whether there is cause to remove her. Cook’s lawyers say a fair hearing would show no legal basis for dismissal. Campaign Oversight: A U.S. judge ordered the administration to stop airing taxpayer-funded ads featuring Trump. Health Costs: Sen. Ron Wyden is seeking public ideas to make healthcare more affordable. The American College of Radiology proposed replacing some prior-authorization reviews with clinician guidance when imaging is ordered.

Administration Shake-Up: President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are weighing whether to fire U.S. Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle after reports of alleged improper conduct, according to a senior U.S. official. Russia Diesel Deal: A bipartisan group of six senators urged Trump to reverse his plan to buy Russian diesel, saying the administration had not justified the decision as required by law. Republican criticism is growing, with Sen. Thom Tillis also blasting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the Pentagon’s plan to livestream the Fort Hood shooter’s execution. Election Watch: House Republicans are demanding answers from an Illinois county clerk after ballot errors affected more than 600 ballots and briefly halted early voting. In Pennsylvania, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries and Gov. Josh Shapiro rallied support for congressional candidate Bob Harvie. Threats to Officials: A New York Times investigation found thousands of violent threats against elected officials and their families across party lines, underscoring the risks facing public servants as campaigns enter their final weeks.

Russia Deal Fallout: President Trump called for Ukraine to replace Volodymyr Zelenskyy after striking a Russian diesel deal, blaming Ukraine for high U.S. fuel prices. The agreement drew bipartisan Republican criticism, and lawmakers are preparing a bill to block Russian oil purchases. Midterm Campaigns: Trump rallied Tennessee Republicans, while House and Senate contests tightened across several states. In Montana, Democrat Alani Bankhead’s refusal to leave the Senate race has fueled concern she could split the party’s vote. Execution Controversy: Trump says he has yet to decide whether to livestream convicted Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan’s execution, amid criticism from lawmakers, religious leaders and survivors’ families. Government and Press: The Justice Department is investigating whether broadcasters’ decision to halt White House pool coverage violated antitrust law. Foreign Policy: Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended U.S. sanctions on the International Criminal Court in talks with Japan, whose government raised concerns about the measures.

Russia and Ukraine: President Donald Trump’s deal to bring Russian diesel to U.S. and global markets has drawn Republican and Democratic criticism, with energy experts doubting it will lower fuel prices. Ukraine struck a Russian oil terminal after the announcement, while Trump said Ukraine should get a new president. Midterm Outlook: Three competitive Pennsylvania House races shifted toward Democrats, and Kansas’s Senate contest was rated a toss-up as control of Congress hangs in the balance. ICC Sanctions: The Trump administration imposed sweeping sanctions on the International Criminal Court, prompting condemnation from the U.N. and other governments. Execution Plan: Pentagon plans to livestream the firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan have sparked bipartisan and international backlash. Medicaid: New federal restrictions have ended coverage for some legal immigrants, including refugees and trafficking victims, as broader program changes are projected to leave millions uninsured.

ICE Oversight: A New York immigration-agent shooting has fueled calls for congressional scrutiny, while Republicans blame sanctuary policies; DHS also faces criticism for using an arrest announcement to target a Democratic congressional campaign. Execution Plan: Trump’s administration says it will livestream Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan’s firing-squad execution, drawing bipartisan condemnation and warnings it could fuel extremist propaganda. Election Stakes: Candidates are sharpening their pitches in close Senate and House races as Democrats see a path to midterm gains and Republicans pour money into battleground contests. Justice Department: New guidance lets senior, Senate-confirmed DOJ appointees take part in political activities in their personal capacity, loosening longstanding restrictions. Foreign Policy: Democratic senators call Trump’s move to allow Russian diesel sales a betrayal of Ukraine, while the administration’s sanctions on the International Criminal Court draw international criticism. Voting Rights: A federal judge ruled the Justice Department’s effort to obtain state voter rolls unlawful, finding Congress had not authorized the move.

Midterm Watch: South Carolina voters seeking absentee ballots must qualify under state rules and return applications by Oct. 23; early voting in Texas runs Oct. 19–30. Senate contests are heating up, with Michigan candidates clashing over foreign policy and Kansas emerging as a surprising battleground. Congressional Action: A bipartisan House bill would extend the $5 billion Clean School Bus Program through 2031. Separately, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Steven Horsford joined 121 lawmakers in questioning Google’s proposed purchase of Spirit Airlines’ internal data ahead of an Oct. 14 court hearing. DOJ Politics: A new Justice Department memo says Senate-confirmed appointees may address political gatherings and endorse candidates, departing from the department’s tradition of stricter political neutrality. Campaign Spending: Wisconsin Democrats sued the Trump administration, alleging it used federal funds for partisan ads before the election. Pentagon Scrutiny: The military confirmed it plans to livestream Nidal Hasan’s scheduled Dec. 3 firing-squad execution, drawing criticism and potential legal challenges.

Senate Races: Georgia’s Jon Ossoff and Mike Collins clashed over tariffs, inflation and Iran, while Michigan’s Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed traded attacks over Israel, health care and foreign policy. Alaska Politics: Donald Trump criticized Republicans for splitting the vote in the state’s Senate race and attacked ranked-choice voting, as Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan Sullivan in one poll. Federal Finances: The 2026 budget deficit reached an estimated $1.993 trillion, up 12% from last year despite continued economic growth. Trump Projects: Arlington County sued to block Trump’s planned triumphal arch, citing environmental, traffic and public-safety concerns. Congressional Oversight: Sen. Maggie Hassan pressed Trump Mobile for details on customer-data breaches, scam prevention and regulatory compliance. Jan. 6 Probe: A federal grand jury heard evidence in an investigation of former Trump aide Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony to Congress; prosecutors are seeking an indictment alleging she lied. Death Penalty: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the government plans to livestream the scheduled firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan, drawing criticism from public figures.

Midterm Mood: Pew finds just 21% of Americans rate the economy positively, while 30% approve of President Trump and 68% disapprove. Democratic voters report stronger midterm engagement. Senate Battle: Senate Majority PAC says it is watching Kansas closely as the race tightens; Iowa candidates Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek clashed over Iran, immigration and health care. Press Freedom: A federal judge signaled he may keep CNN, MS NOW and Politico’s White House access in place while their lawsuit over Trump’s restrictions proceeds. Immigration Policy: Vice President JD Vance suspended Microsoft from a green-card program over alleged fraud and accused nine universities of misusing exchange visas. Voting Access: Kentucky’s most populous county will offer drive-through voting for the first time, with officials citing accessibility for voters with disabilities. Iran and Affordability: Trump says the U.S. will not strike Iran before the midterms, while surging heating-oil costs are putting Sen. Susan Collins on the defensive in Maine.

Midterm Campaigns: Republicans in 41 of 62 battleground districts are trying to distinguish themselves from President Trump, with Iran policy a flashpoint in 12. In Iowa’s Senate debate, Republican Ashley Hinson backed ending the war on favorable terms, while Democrat Josh Turek called for diplomacy and an immediate end to the conflict; they also clashed over immigration and farm costs. Iran Debate: California state Sen. Steve Padilla condemned Trump’s remarks about Iran striking San Diego and Los Angeles, warning they put residents at risk. Congressional Priorities: Democrats are pitching plans to curb AI harms as lawmakers debate safeguards for the fast-moving technology. Tribal Water: The Senate passed Sen. Steve Daines’ Crow Tribe water rights bill, sending it to the president’s desk. It would give the tribe more flexibility to advance water infrastructure and a hydropower project.